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THE WAYPOINT SUR

Will PP swing an agreement with Vox?

The result the election did not settle

You may have filed the Andalucían election as done. Most people did. Juanma Moreno's Partido Popularthe centre-right party won it on 17 May, and that felt like the end of the story.

It was not. He won 53 of the region's 109 parliamentary seats, two short of the 55 required for a party to govern alone. Six weeks later, who actually runs the Junta de Andalucíathe regional government is still being settled, not by voters but by the elected deputies themselves. They hold the confirmation vote this afternoon in Sevilla.

This matters to you for an unglamorous reason. The Junta, not Madrid, runs the hospital you queue in, the rules your landlord follows, and a good deal of the paperwork that governs your residency. Whoever ends up in charge sets the direction for all of it.

What is actually being decided

To govern alone, Moreno needed 55 seats. He has 53. The 15 seats held by Vox are the difference between a government and a stalemate.

Going into Tuesday's session, there was still no signed deal, though both camps were briefing that one was close. Moreno wants a programme both sides sign up to, with no Vox ministers in his cabinet. Vox wants seats at the table with real departments to run, and it is holding its votes until it gets them. One of its conditions, prioridad nacionalnational priority — would put Spanish nationals first in line for social aid and housing support, a demand that, if it survives the talks, would directly affect foreign residents like you. That is the haggle playing out as you read this.

Two roads from here. If Vox backs him today, Moreno is confirmed this afternoon. If it does not, a second vote follows about 48 hours later, on Thursday, where a simple majority is enough, and a Vox abstention quietly lets him through. Fail both, and the clock runs to a fresh election in the autumn.

Why it lands on your week, not theirs

The temptation is to treat this as just politics for Spaniards, i.e., somebody else's sport. The reason to look up is that the winner inherits live files that directly affect you.

The Andalusian doctors have just finished a five-week strike that left more than 1.3 million appointments and procedures suspended across the region, and the dispute is unresolved. Confirmed June 2026. The body that settles it, or doesn't, is the one being assembled this week. So is the body steering regional housing rules and the new third Málaga hospital, the Hospital Virgen de la Esperanza, a €543 million build now under construction in the capital.

A government that wins outright governs from its own mandate. A government that has to be assembled afterward, owing a junior partner for every vote, governs while paying that debt. The question worth asking this week is who now owes whom. That, more than the result, shapes the decisions you live with.

Spanish-lite

investidura — investiture vote: the parliamentary vote that confirms a candidate as regional president and allows a government to form.

mayoría absolutaabsolute majority: more than half the seats, 55 of 109 here, which is what one party needs to govern without a partner.

The bottom line

The May election picked the largest party; it did not pick the government. That gets settled this week, and the price of settling it, whether Vox sits in the cabinet or merely lends its votes, is what will steer your hospital queue, your rental rules, and the tone of the residency desk for the next four years. Nothing on your desk changes today. What changes is the direction of travel, and it is worth knowing which way it has turned. We will tell you how it landed.

See you on the paseo — A. and the WaypointSur team, reading the seating plan in Sevilla.