Yesterday's newsletter went out with the date "Wednesday, February 5th."

Wednesday was the 4th. Thursday is the 5th. The editor, who is me, apparently needed a calendar more than a second coffee.

We also included links to guide articles that hadn't actually been published yet. They're live now. We're expanding the team and building new systems, which is good, but "move fast and break things" shouldn't extend to knowing what day it is. The editor has been duly flogged.

We'll do better. Thanks for your patience.

Now, back to regularly scheduled programming.

The gap between housing policy announcements and housing delivery isn't an execution problem. It's structural. The government can freeze tourist rental licenses for three months. Building 17,000 homes takes at least five years and assumes land, permits, energy capacity, and labor that aren't currently lined up.

On Monday, Benalmádena's local police took hacksaws to seven key lockboxes bolted to public railings, the kind tourists use to pick up apartment keys without meeting anyone. It's a small story, but it tells you everything about where enforcement is heading. The crackdown isn't subtle anymore. It's physical.

The policy tools work fast. The supply response doesn't. That asymmetry is the story.

Málaga's mayor announced 17,000 new homes last week. Ten thousand of them are subsidised. It made the papers. It sounds like a solution.

Here's what the announcement actually says: those homes are planned for 2027–2031. Next term. Not this one. The current term promised 8,700 homes. They've delivered less than half.

Meanwhile:

The VUT — vivienda de uso turístico (tourist rental license) — freeze locked 43 neighborhoods out of new licenses back in January 2025. That was supposed to push supply back into the residential market.

It hasn't worked the way people hoped.

The freeze didn't create more long-term rentals. It created more mid-term rentals: the 3-6 month contracts that serve digital nomads, medical tourists, and seasonal workers. Same apartments, different contract structure, different platform marketing.

For remote workers, this sounds fine. More supply, right?

Not exactly. What's changed is who holds the leverage.

Landlords with compliant properties in non-frozen zones are now operating in a seller's market. They can be picky. Screening is tighter. Income verification is stricter. Contract lengths are getting pushed longer because turnover is friction they don't need.

If you're on a lease right now, the IRAV — Índice de Referencia de Arrendamientos de Vivienda (rental reference index) — caps your renewal increase at 2.2%. That's the law.

If you have to move? You're negotiating at the market. And the market is up 15-20% from eighteen months ago.

The squeeze isn't "rents are high." The squeeze is if you lose your spot, getting back in costs significantly more, and the competition for compliant, quality units is getting sharper.

Spain's inflation came in at 2.4% for January. Down from December. Sounds good.

But here's what that number doesn't capture: your rent isn't in the CPI the way you experience it.

The headline economy looks healthy. GDP growth at 2.6% for 2025. Tourism revenue on the Costa del Sol hit a record €21.8 billion. Employment numbers are solid.

Look underneath, and you see something different.

Manufacturing is contracting. Output growth at 0.1% last quarter. Order booksare shrinking. Export demand is weakening.

Private investment is flat. The growth in "investment" is mostly intellectual property: software, licenses. Not construction. Not capacity.

What's actually growing? Government spending. EU Recovery Fund disbursements. Tourism (but normalizing). And population. Spain just announced plans to regularize the status of 500,000 undocumented workers, which would expand the labor force but not the housing stock.

The economy isn't growing organically. It's being injected: EU grants, tourism euros, migration-driven labor supply.

When you inject growth, you get activity without productivity gains. Spain's productivity per hour worked declined again last quarter.

This matters for housing because the construction sector isn't responding to "demand." It's constrained by:

The 17,000 homes aren't a market response. They're a political announcement timed for the 2027 election positioning.

If you're renting now: Your lease is a moat. Renew it. The IRAV cap protects you at 2.2% annual increase. Moving resets you to the market.

If you're looking: The pressure-valve neighborhoods (Teatinos, Puerto de la Torre, Carretera de Cádiz) are where supply still exists, but prices are rising fastest there precisely because they're the release valve.

If you're remote and flexible on timing: The mid-term market (32-180 day contracts) is where supply is shifting. But expect more documentation requests, more income verification, and longer minimum stays than a year ago. If you're establishing residency, getting your NIE sorted before apartment hunting gives you an edge. Landlords prefer tenants who are already in the system. If your partner handles viewings while you're on calls, make sure they have copies of income documents and the NIE ready to hand over on the spot.

If you own: Compliance is a moat. The Benalmádena lockbox hacksaw isn't an isolated incident. It's the visible edge of enforcement that's tightening everywhere. Non-compliant VUT inventory is increasingly a liability, not an asset.

When discussing rentals:

¿Tiene licencia VUT? — Does it have a tourist rental license?

¿Cuánto es la subida permitida por el IRAV? — What's the allowed increase under IRAV?

Your current lease is worth more than you think. The asymmetry between fast policy tools and slow supply response isn't temporary. Plan for a market where losing your spot means re-entering at significantly higher cost, and where compliance (for renters and owners alike) is the new leverage.

What I'm watching: Whether the energy grid constraint becomes the story. The mayor flagged that Málaga is "at its limit." If the city literally can't power new residential construction, all the housing announcements in the world don't matter.

Facing a lease renewal decision? Reply with your situation. Know someone apartment hunting right now? Forward this to them.

Nearly there — A. and the currently never-moving-again, WaypointSur team