You've seen the property market predictions for 2026. Prices up 4-6%. Interest rates are stabilizing. Supply is still constrained. Málaga province is "one to watch."

Then your landlord emails about a rent increase. Or your agent calls about that apartment you liked, already gone. Or you check Idealista and notice the same two-bedroom in your building is now listed for €50k more than what you paid three years ago.

The macro story and the micro reality don't quite match. Here's what's actually happening.

Prices: Up another 4-6% expected, following 2025's 8-10% climb. Málaga province led the country. The coast isn't cooling. Sources: Idealista, Tinsa, CaixaBank Research. Confirmed January 2026.

Supply: Still constrained. New construction permits are up, but completions lag by 18-24 months. The apartments hitting the market in 2026 were planned before interest rates spiked.

Interest rates: ECB holding steady around 3%. Spanish banks are offering fixed rates between 2.8% and 3.5% for well-qualified buyers. Better than 2023's peak, not as good as 2021's floor.

Rental yields: Compressing. A €350,000 apartment that rented for €1,400/month five years ago might rent for €1,800 now, but it's also worth €500,000. The math has changed.

If you're renting and thinking about buying:

The calculation isn't whether prices will drop. They probably won't. It's whether you can tolerate three more years of rental uncertainty while prices climb faster than your savings.

A typical purchase scenario: €400,000 apartment. 20% down (€80,000). Mortgage at 3.2% over 25 years. Monthly payment around €1,550. Add comunidad — homeowners’ fees — at €150-300/month, property tax at €800-1,500/year, and maintenance.

Compare to renting that same apartment at €1,800/month with annual increases.

The break-even math depends on how long you're staying. Under five years, renting often still wins. Over seven, buying usually does. The messy middle is where most people live.

If you're already renting:

Expect your landlord to test the market. Contracts renewing in 2026 face 2024-2025's price gains. The rental price index cap (2% in 2024, 3% in 2025) applies only to some landlords in some situations, and many find ways around it.

Your leverage: long-term tenants cost landlords less in turnover. If you've been reliable for three years, you have negotiating room. A 5% increase is reasonable. A 20% increase is your landlord hoping you'll pay Idealista prices without them having to find a new tenant.

If you own and are watching:

Your property is worth more on paper. That matters if you're selling, refinancing, or using equity. It matters less if you're staying put and your IBI — property tax — just went up 8%.

The owners who benefit most in 2026: those with fixed-rate mortgages locked in 2020-2021, those with rental properties in high-demand zones, and those selling to upgrade within the region (selling high, but also buying high).

Not all of the coast moves together.

Málaga city: Still accelerating. Tech sector jobs, airport proximity, university population. Young professionals competing with investors. Studios and one-beds are the battleground.

Marbella and the Golden Mile: The luxury segment plays by different rules. Cash buyers, international wealth, €2M+ properties operating in a market disconnected from interest rates.

Estepona and the west coast: The value play of five years ago is now just "expensive." Still cheaper than Marbella, but the gap is closing. Families who wanted space are competing with remote workers who discovered it during COVID.

Inland towns (Coín, Alhaurín, Cártama): Where the affordability went. A €250,000 house with a garden exists here. It doesn't exist on the coast. The trade-off is commute time, fewer services, and inland views, beautiful, but not the deep blue of the Mediterranean.

Most property discussions focus on whether to buy. The better question for established expats: what does staying here cost in five years?

If prices rise 5% annually and your income doesn't, the Costa slowly prices you out, whether you rent or own. The people buying in 2026 have different profiles from those who bought in 2020. Higher incomes, more cash, more willing to pay a premium for lifestyle.

This isn't a crisis. It's a shift. The Costa del Sol is transitioning from accessible to selective. That affects renters, owners, and anyone planning to stay.

This quarter:

This year:

If buying an apartment, calculate comunidad fees before you fall in love with the terrace. Request the last 2 years of meeting minutes. Surprises hide there.

When asking about property costs:

"¿Cuánto es la comunidad al mes?" — How much are the monthly community fees?

And before any purchase:

"¿Puedo ver las actas de las últimas juntas?" — Can I see the minutes from recent owners' meetings?

The second question tells you whether there's a €30,000 roof repair coming.

Property in 2026 isn't about timing the market. It's about understanding that the market has already moved. Prices are up, supply is tight, and the people buying now are paying premiums your neighbors didn't pay five years ago. The coast is getting more expensive, and it's not reversing. The question isn't whether to buy. It's whether you can afford to stay without buying.

Enjoy the weekend — A. and the nota simple in hand, comunidad fees calculated, Waypoint Sur team