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THE WAYPOINT SUR

The valve stayed shut

The regulated electricity price is running 16% higher than a month ago, and the automatic tax relief Spain wrote into the rules in June will not be arriving on the August bill. Both facts are official. Together they decide what, if anything, is worth doing this week, and the answer turns on one line of your contract.

What actually moved

The PVPCthe government-set electricity price that changes hour by hour averaged €0.145 per kWh over the 30 days to Sunday. Across the 30 days before that, it averaged €0.125. That is a 16.3% rise in the energy price, window on window, and it is not one bad afternoon skewing an average; every day in both windows was fully sampled. Confirmed July 2026.

The middle of last week is what that trend feels like at the meter. From Monday 13 to Friday 17 July, every daily average sat above €0.18 per kWh, roughly half again the June norm. The weekend gave most of it back, as sunny, windy weekends do. That whiplash is the regulated tariff's whole character: cheap when the weather cooperates, dear when it does not. July asks the air conditioning to run either way.

For a household using 300 kWh a month, the energy portion alone moved from about €37 to €44. That is before the power charge, the meter rental, and the two taxes that multiply everything beneath them by roughly 1.27. Call it €6 a month before tax, nearer €8 after it.

And the tax layer is fully loaded again. IVA returned to 21% and the electricity tax to 5.11% on 1 June, which we walked through when it happened. July is the first summer month paying full freight on both.

The relief valve nobody will be opening

Buried in the same June decree that restored the taxes, Real Decreto-ley 18/2026, sits a mechanism worth two minutes of your attention, because it shows you how Spain now thinks about your bill.

If electricity in the consumer price index runs more than 15% above the same month last year, the taxes fall again automatically: IVA back to 10%, the electricity tax to 0.5%. June's reading decides August. July's reading decides September. No minister has to act, no vote is taken. The gauge decides.

June's reading is in. INE, the national statistics office, published the definitive June figures in mid-July: electricity rose 16.1% in the month of June alone, the tax snapback and a climbing market landing at once. Measured against June last year, the rise is 6.0%. The gauge the law reads is that second number. Six is less than fifteen, so the valve stays shut, and August bills carry full taxes. Confirmed July 2026.

Sit with that pair of numbers over coffee. The pain you feel is month on month: this bill against last bill. The pain the law measures is year on year: this July against last July. Last July was already expensive, which is exactly why this one does not register. The valve was calibrated for catastrophe, and expensive-again-this-summer is not catastrophe. It is just the price now.

September's valve rides on July's reading, published mid-August. Our read: do not plan around it opening.

Which side of the meter you are on

As we’ve said before, you cannot choose the wires. e-distribución, the Endesa-group grid company that owns the meters across Málaga province, serves every household identically whoever sends the bill. What you choose is the contract, and contracts come in two families: the regulated PVPC above, and fixed rates on the mercado librethe free market.

If your bill says PVPC, July's move is your move. You absorbed it hour by hour, and August's weather will set August's bill. The fixed market, checked on the suppliers' own pages on Monday evening: Naturgy's Por Uso tariff prices energy at €0.112 per kWh flat, no lock-in, rate held for 12 months. Endesa's online 24-hour tariff lists €0.160, or €0.128 in year one with its 20% promotion, also without permanence. Confirmed July 2026. Both sit at or below what PVPC has averaged over the past 30 days, never mind what it did last week. The power charge differs between offers, so compare the whole bill rather than the kWh line alone; our bill explainer shows where each number lives. A switch is free, takes 15 to 21 days, and the crew who fix the outages never changes.

If you are on a fixed rate already, you are insulated from all of this until renewal. When around a hundred readers ran real bills through our checker in its first fortnight, the verdicts ran overwhelmingly to "you are fine"; the leaks were add-on packs worth €5 to €9 a month, removable with one call. Since then the machine has issued its first two genuine switch verdicts, both on flat rates written well above today's market. Fine is a verdict about a moment. When the market layer moves, it is worth asking again.

Either way, the question resolves in about a minute: run your latest bill through the WaypointSur contract check. Your browser reads the PDF, the file never leaves your device, and the verdict carries no commission, which is why "you are fine" remains an answer it is allowed to give. Its reference assumptions were re-verified against this market on 20 July.

Spanish-lite

"¿Tengo tarifa regulada o de mercado libre?" — Am I on the regulated tariff or the free market? The one question that decides whether this issue is about your bill. Any supplier app, or the tariff line on the bill itself, answers it. Useful for whoever in the household actually makes the utility calls.

Sin permanenciano lock-in. The clause to insist on when switching in a moving market. Both offers named above carry it.

The bottom line

The regulated price is up 16% window on window, the taxes are back at full strength, and the relief valve the state installed reads a gauge calibrated to last summer, so it stays shut while this one gets expensive. The one valve on that bill that opens on your schedule is the contract line. Finding out which tariff family you are in, and checking it against a market currently selling €0.112 flat with no lock-in, costs a minute. Expensive month or cheap one, the minute is the same price.

See you on the paseo — A. and the WaypointSur team, hand on the only valve that turns.