Foreign Home Purchases Fell in 2025. But Then We Drove Them Up.

Foreign home purchases in Spain fell 0.8% in 2025. That looks like a cooling market. It is not. It is two markets moving in opposite directions.

Non-resident foreign buyers purchased 51,411 properties last year. These are the holiday-home shoppers, the investors browsing from Amsterdam and London. That is down 10% year-on-year, the lowest level in four years. The Golden Visa ended in April 2025. The government talked openly about taxing non-EU buyers. The message landed: offshore demand is retreating. (Confirmed April 2026, Spanish Property Insight / Colegio de Registradores data)

Resident foreign buyers, people already registered on the padrón — town hall register — already using the centro de salud, already competing for school places, purchased 75,570 homes. That is up 4% year-on-year. They now account for 60% of all foreign property transactions in Spain. (Confirmed April 2026, Registradores/INE)

The housing pressure on the Costa del Sol is not arriving by plane. It already has an empadronamiento — town hall registration.

The narrative that "foreign buyers are driving up prices" is correct. But the largest share of those foreigners are not absentee investors browsing from northern Europe. They are your neighbours. Moroccan families in Fuengirola. Romanian workers in Malaga city. Dutch couples in Estepona. British retirees in Mijas. People who live here, work here, and need a home for the same reasons you do.

In Malaga province, foreign buyers account for 31-43% of all transactions, depending on the data source and quarter. In Marbella, the share exceeds 60%. In Benahavis, it exceeds 80%. (Confirmed April 2026, INE/Idealista/Registradores)

The average property price in Malaga province hit an all-time high of EUR 4,047 per square metre in early 2026. A standard two-bedroom flat in Malaga city requires roughly EUR 97,000 upfront (20% deposit plus taxes and fees on a EUR 322,000 purchase). For local families, Spanish expat mortgage payments now account for 37% of the average income. For the expat buyer earning in euros or a stronger currency, the market still works. That gap is the tension. (Confirmed February 2026, Olive Press/Idealista)

You are part of the demand that created those numbers. So is everyone else in your building.

The British remain the largest single foreign-buyer group nationally, accounting for 7.9% of foreign transactions. But British purchases declined 10.7% year-on-year. Brexit, the pound's weakness, and the NLV's tightening are all factors.

The Dutch are the story. In Q4 2025, Dutch buyers climbed to second place nationally with 1,632 transactions, up 24% year-on-year. They are the only major nationality growing on both a quarterly and annual basis. Since 2023, Dutch purchases in Spain have increased by nearly 50%.

On the Costa del Sol, Dutch searches focus on Estepona and Marbella, where new-build developments and gated communities align with their preferences. They have already overtaken British buyers in average spend per property. German buyers sit third at 6.6%, stable, with Polish and Eastern European buyers becoming more visible behind them. (Confirmed March 2026, Idealista/Colegio de Registradores)

What this means for the Costa: the community you moved into was shaped by British buyers, British bars, and British social infrastructure. The next version is being shaped by a different buyer profile with distinct preferences, price points, and integration patterns. More Bruin cafés and beer halls can’t be that bad a thing.

When non-residents buy, they create seasonal demand. The apartment fills in summer, empties in winter. The centro de salud sees them briefly. The school does not see them at all.

When expats buy to become long-term residents, they create year-round demand for every service. Twelve months of Centro de Salud appointments. Twelve months of school places. Twelve months of water, electricity, and municipal waste. The infrastructure was sized for the seasonal version. The demand is now permanent.

In Torremolinos, 18,003 foreign residents across 121 nationalities account for 24.2% of the population. In Fuengirola, 44%. These are not tourist numbers. These are comunidad — homeowner community meetings, parent-teacher associations, and queues at the oficina de extranjeria — immigration office.

The towns that planned for this density (expanded health centres, built schools, invested in water infrastructure) are absorbing it. The towns that sized their services for seasonal tourism and now have 40% year-round foreign residents are the ones where the grid fails, and the centro de salud queue starts at 7 AM. The same grid saturation we covered last week in Torrox and Estepona is the infrastructure expression of the same demographic shift.

Yesterday, we wrote about the Andalucia elections and the fact that every party has a position on foreign residents. The housing data shows why. You are not a footnote in the housing debate. You are the data. Vox wants a "dissuasive tax" on foreign buyers. The PSOE wants to revoke tourist apartment permits and tax non-EU purchases. The street wants rent controls and VUT restrictions.

All of those proposals assume the pressure is coming from outside. The data show that 60% of it comes from residents. The policy solutions targeting offshore speculation are aimed at the 40% that is shrinking. The 60% that is growing, the part that includes you, is barely addressed. Because you live here. You vote locally (or could). You are harder to frame as the problem when you are also queuing at the Centro de Salud.

Vivienda de protección oficial — Subsidised housing (VPO). The protected stock that Moreno shortened from a 30-year to a 7-year lock-in. Relevant if you are wondering where the affordable housing went.

Nota simple — Property registry extract. The document that shows who owns what, and whether the property has debts or charges. Essential before any Spanish real estate purchase.

Foreign home purchases fell in 2025. But the headline hides the split: non-resident buyers down 10%, resident buyers up 4%. The demand reshaping the Costa del Sol is not coming from people browsing listings in London or Amsterdam. It is coming from people already registered at the town hall, already using the schools and hospitals, already paying IBI. You are both the person affected by rising prices and the person driving them. The towns that recognised this early are coping. The rest are catching up.

See you on the paseo — A. and the residentially conflicted WaypointSur team out looking at new houses.