If you arrived on the Costa del Sol in 2022 or 2023, you've hit a threshold. Not a deadline — something more interesting.

You've been here long enough to know.

The honeymoon confusion has faded. You understand how things work (mostly). You've stopped converting prices. Your Spanish is functional, or it isn't. You've found your supermarket, your coffee spot, your parking workaround.

Now comes the actual question: Is this your life, or were you testing it?

Two things happen around the three-year mark.

First, the "temporary" framing stops holding. Your lease has renewed twice. Your gestor — tax administrator — knows your Modelo 720 — foreign asset declaration — by heart. You've explained your location to colleagues enough times that it's no longer novel — it's just where you live.

Second, the opportunity cost becomes visible. Three years of rent instead of equity. Three years of "wait and see" instead of rooting. If you're leaving, the exit costs compound. If you're staying, you're still positioned like someone who might leave.

Neither choice is wrong. But not choosing is increasingly expensive.

When you arrived, renting made obvious sense. You didn't know if you'd stay. The rental premium was worth the flexibility.

That calculation has changed.

Costa del Sol property prices rose roughly 20% from 2022 to 2024. Rents rose faster in many areas, 25-35% in desirable spots like Nueva Andalucía and Estepona port. Meanwhile, mortgage rates, while higher than 2021's absurd lows, have stabilized around 3-4% for fixed terms.

Here's the shift: For a €400,000 apartment in Benahavís, you're looking at roughly €1,800/month mortgage versus €2,200-2,500/month rent for equivalent properties. Add IBI, comunidad, and maintenance, and ownership is still cheaper by €200-400/month, while building equity.

The breakeven for buying versus renting is now around 4-5 years. If you're staying that long, the math favors ownership. If you're genuinely uncertain, renting still makes sense. But "I haven't decided yet" after three years isn't uncertainty, it's a decision you're avoiding.

Something happened while you were on calls.

Málaga Tech Park hit €3.5 billion in revenue with 25,000 employees and 70+ international companies. Google, Vodafone, TDK, Accenture — not satellite offices, actual operations. The airport added twelve new international routes in 2024.

The practical impact: You can now build a career on the Costa del Sol, not just work remotely from it.

Three years ago, finding another senior remote professional was a matter of luck. Now there's density. Coworking spaces in Marbella (WeCowork on Avenida Ramón y Cajal, Centro House in the old town) have waiting lists for dedicated desks. The morning laptop crowd at Deli Corner in San Pedro includes people you might actually want to hire, or be hired by.

This changes the calculation. The "I could live anywhere" arbitrage has narrowed as costs rose. But the "I can build something here" opportunity has expanded.

The first wave of post-2020 arrivals are making their call. The departures share a pattern. So do those who remain.

The leavers tend to cite the same cluster: partner unhappy, couldn't crack the language, kids struggled with school transition, the time zone gap became unsustainable, or, increasingly, the cost advantage disappeared.

The stayers share different markers: They solved the work-schedule problem (structured their days around calls rather than fighting them). They found one or two genuine friendships, not expat acquaintances. They stopped treating Spain as a backdrop and started treating it as context. And often they bought property not as an investment but as a declaration.

The trailing spouse factor matters more than people admit. When one partner's experience is primarily "handling admin while you're on calls," the arrangement has a shelf life. The couples who stay tend to have figured out something for both people to do.

It's not cost. Not weather. Not lifestyle in the abstract.

It's whether your life here compounds.

In your previous location — San Francisco, London, Amsterdam, wherever — your network compounded. Career moves led to better career moves. Relationships led to relationships. Knowing people led to knowing more people. The city worked for you.

The question for 2026: Has the Costa del Sol started working for you? Have the professional connections led somewhere? Have the friendships deepened? Do you know people who know people, or are you still introducing yourself?

If life here is compounding, you'll find reasons to stay even when it gets harder. If it isn't, you'll find reasons to leave even when staying seems easier.

Three years is enough time to know which pattern you're in.

If you're staying: Lock it in. Look seriously at property in Q1, before the spring buyer season inflates asking prices. Invest in Spanish — not tourist phrases, but enough to have actual conversations. Join something with continuity (the same padel group, the same coworking desk, the same café table). Compounding requires repetition.

If you're leaving: Start the exit gracefully. Your spring lease renewal is your window. Sort the fiscal residency transition (you need to establish residency elsewhere before the tax year starts if you want a clean departure). Sell or ship what you've accumulated. Tell your landlord early — they'll find tenants, and you'll get your deposit back cleanly.

If you're genuinely uncertain: Give yourself a deadline. June 2026. By then, either you've found what makes this place compound for you, or you haven't. Uncertainty past three years isn't caution. It's paralysis with nicer weather.

The Costa del Sol is still building, still attracting, still figuring itself out. But so are you.

2026 is the year to stop experimenting and start deciding. Whatever you decide, you'll be right — as long as you actually decide.

May this year bring you everything your heart desires, strong health, and happiness. Let's make even more unforgettable memories here on the Costa!

See you on the paseo — A. and the Waypoint Sur Costa lifers

With Waypoint Sur, you can always expect plain-English guidance to land, settle, and thrive on the Costa del Sol—work, schools, healthcare, visas, taxes, home, and daily life.  
Made Mostly Under the Costa del Sol Sun. 💛